According to FAO SWALIM river station gauge data
as of June 3 and 4, water levels in the Juba [pictured] and Shabelle
Rivers show a receding trend compared to the last 10 days of May due to
relatively lower rainfall amounts. Most river stations report that water
levels are below the long-term mean, and all river stations report that
water levels are below the flood risk thresholds. [photocredit:
@ShafiMagan]
Another closely related, urgent problem is Al-Shabaab, the militant
jihadi Somali group affiliated with Al Qaeda, which remains in control
of large swathes of the country and continues to pose a potent threat to
the government.
Its 15 year insurgency has already outlasted two US administrations
and four Somali Presidents, including the current one when he was in his
first term.
In January the Africa Center for Strategic studies, an academic institution within the US Department of Defence, reported
a 17-percent increase in violent activity involving Al- Shabaab over
the past year (from 1,771 reported events to 2,072) marking a steady
increase—and near doubling—from the 1,080 events in 2015.
On 3 May at least 30 Burundian soldiers were killed and 20 others injured in an Al-Shabaab multiple suicide truck bomb attack on an African Union base in southern Somalia.
Last month President Biden approved
a plan to redeploy hundreds of US Special Forces operatives into
Somalia as well as a Pentagon request for standing authority to target
about a dozen suspected leaders of Al-Shabaab.
“The president has authorized the Department of Defence to return a
small, persistent U.S. military presence to Somalia" Pentagon Press
Secretary John F. Kirby told reporters during a briefing in the Pentagon:
Those forces, as they have been, will continue to be used in
training, advising and equipping partner forces to give them the tools
that they need to disrupt, degrade and monitor al-Shabab.
Our forces are not now, nor will they be, directly
engaged in combat operations. The purpose here is to enable a more
effective fight against al-Shabab by local forces.
The move, which was welcomed
by the Somali president through his official twitter channel, largely
reverses the decision by former President Trump to withdraw nearly all
of the 700 US ground troops from Somalia and marks a return to an
open-ended US counterterrorism operation with echoes of Afghanistan.
It also appears to run contrary to the African Union’s Somalia Transition Plan which says Somali security forces are to take over all responsibilities from the AU mission in the country by 31 December 2024.
As in Afghanistan, US strategy against Al-Shabaab in Somalia is based
on building a competent national army able to face the militants on the
battlefield.
The US military has been training Somali special forces since 2015,
beginning with a unit called the Danab or Lightning Brigade, known for
their striking shoulder patch (a lions head with a lightning rod running
through it) and their nickname kuumaandoska, the commandos.
Danab is regarded as a model unit not only because it has been
effective in fighting al-Shabaab but also because it is made up of men
recruited from throughout Somalia’s regions and so is said to be less
involved in political wrangling and clan disputes.
The plan
is for the US to train 4000 such elite troops, roughly double what
exists today, and they will constitute the core of a revitalised Somali
national army of some 22,000 men.
This is despite the fact previous US attempts to create ”post-tribal
forces” in other theatres - like the Afghan National Army and the Iraqi
army in Mosul - collapsed when the units dissolved and returned to their
tribal militias and families when faced with a highly-motivated enemy.
Last month Vice
reported that weapons supplied by the CIA to one Somali militia the CIA
created and which Navy SEALS have been mentoring since the early 2000s,
were used in a deadly attack in which at least 22 people including 2
children were killed when the militia split in two and fought each
other.
One important element of the Somalia Transition Plan that has
received little attention so far is UNSC Resolution 2608 which
authorises international counter-piracy operations in Somali waters and
which was deliberately allowed to expire
on 31 March. The intention behind this was that it would pave the way
for greater Somali maritime security autonomy since the security
situation off the coast has improved.
According to the Secretary-General’s 2021 report
on piracy and armed robbery at sea off Somalia, no successful hijacking
has been reported since March 2017, and both attempts and attacks have
declined sharply since 2013.
Some observers have urged caution
however, saying allowing the resolution to lapse risks encouraging
piracy and several UNSC members, such as France, the UK and US have
advocated for the continuation of the anti-piracy measures, for example
to protect World Food Programme vessels.
The election of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud last month is one
major step towards solving the months-long political crisis which saw different units
of the Somali security services turn their guns on each other. But even
Somalis who oppose Al-Shabaab have been angered by the way it took
place, with Mogadishu-based anti-corruption NGO Marqaati stating:
Today’s selection of the new president by the Somali parliament
reflects the internationally-enabled failures of the past two
administrations in Mogadishu... The only lesson here is that it is
politically advantageous to rig elections and that there is no
accountability for doing so...
As the Somali public does not pay the bulk of the funds that run
the federal government, its leaders have no respect for them or their
priorities. The government has more respect and is more responsive to
the international community that pays its bills and gives it physical
protection.
The NGO argues a government so beholden to international backers not
only fails to represent the interests of the people, it is likely also
to fail to achieve the objectives of its foreign supporters with the
result that:
Security will further worsen as security forces are used for
political reasons; immigration will pick up as the country is mismanaged
without accountability; and piracy may see a comeback as economic
opportunities decline. Of more interest to the international partners,
terrorist groups will continue expanding in the country and using it as a
base of operations to destabilise the region and beyond.
It is a grim scenario, one that the Biden administration needs to ponder as it sends troops back into Somalia.